Brexit: the £240bn mistake we can’t afford to keep making

Claudia Karl 18/02/2026

Photo by Mark This file is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 2.0 Generic license.

Nearly ten years after the referendum, the numbers are in. And they’re devastating.

The economic carnage

Multiple independent studies published in 2025 have reached the same brutal conclusion:

By 2025, Brexit has reduced UK GDP by 6 to 8 per cent.

That’s £240bn per year that our economy has lost.

Not “might lose.” HAS LOST.

What Brexit has cost us:

Business Investment: down 12 to 18 per cent compared to similar economies.
UK went from being a strong performer to a laggard.
Businesses are investing elsewhere or not at all.
Employment: down 3 to 4 per cent
Hundreds of thousands of jobs that should exist, don’t
Particularly hard hit: manufacturing, agriculture, logistics
Productivity: down 3 – 4 per cent
We’re producing less with the same effort
Wages have stagnated as a result
Trade: down 15 per cent with the EU
Both imports AND exports reduced
Massive increase in paperwork, delays, costs
Tax Revenue: lost £40bn per year
That’s roughly the same as Rachel Reeves’ entire budget tax increases

Without Brexit, those tax rises wouldn’t have been necessary

These aren’t forecasts. These are actual, measured losses.

How did we get here?

The losses didn’t happen overnight. They accumulated gradually, year after year:
2016-2018: uncertainty begins to bite, investment slows
2019-2020: Brexit completed, trade barriers erected
2021-2023: full impact emerges as businesses adjust
2024-2025: losses continue to mount

The economists were RIGHT about the damage. They were just wrong about the timing — it’s been worse over a decade than they predicted.

The human cost

Behind these numbers are real people:

Higher cost of living — inflation pushed up 1.7 per cent by Brexit alone (£404/year per household in 2017)
Lower wages — real wages have barely risen since 2016
Higher prices — import costs up, choice reduced
Lost opportunities — young people [in fact, ALL UK citizens. Ed] denied freedom of movement, study, work across Europe
NHS crisis — loss of EU workers worsened staffing shortages
Agriculture crisis — labour shortages, export barriers

Public opinion has shifted dramatically

In 2016: Leave won 51.9 per cent to 48.1 per cent on a 72.2 per cent turnout.

In 2025:

56 per cent now think Brexit was WRONG (only 31 per cent still think it was right)

61 per cent say Brexit has been more of a FAILURE than a success

74 per cent of Labour members blame Brexit for Britain’s economic woes

And here’s the kicker:

When you account for:

Demographics (6 million young pro-EU voters reached voting age, 2.8 million older Leave voters have died).

Changed minds (29 per cent of Leave voters now want to rejoin, only 8 per cent of Remain voters changed to Leave).

The current majority for REJOINING the EU is approximately 8 MILLION.

That’s not a narrow margin. That’s a landslide.

The risks of staying out

Every year we stay outside the EU:
We fall further behind economically
Our competitors in the EU are growing faster
Investment continues to flow elsewhere
Brain drain accelerates
We lose negotiating power
The “new trade deals” have added only 0.2 per cent to GDP
Even a full US deal would only add 0.35 per cent
These don’t come close to offsetting the 4-8% loss from leaving the EU
We become more isolated
Trump’s America is unreliable
We have no seat at the European table
We’re alone in a hostile world
The damage becomes permanent
Businesses that relocated won’t return
Supply chains that reorganized won’t reorganize again
Workers who left won’t come back
We’re vulnerable to right-wing takeover
Farage and Reform UK are leading in polls
They want to double down on Brexit
Their vision: closer to Putin’s Russia, further from Europe

Why we need to re-join — NOW

1. Economic recovery

Rejoining the EU would:
Restore access to the Single Market (450 million consumers)
Eliminate trade barriers and customs checks
Restore business confidence and investment
Bring back growth and productivity

2. Security

Collective defence stronger than isolation
Intelligence sharing restored
Cooperation on crime, terrorism, climate change
Protection from Trump’s erratic foreign policy

3. Opportunity

Freedom of movement for our young people
Access to Erasmus and EU education programs
Right to live, work, study anywhere in EU
Restoration of rights stolen from an entire generation

4. Democracy

The electorate has changed dramatically
An 8 million majority now supports rejoining
Democracy means respecting the CURRENT will of the people
Not being bound forever by a narrow 2016 result based on lies

“But We’d Have to Join the Euro!”
Possibly. And you know what? Maybe that wouldn’t be the worst thing. Because right now we have:

Weaker economy than EU countries
Lower growth than EU average
Less investment than EU members
Worse public services than most EU states

We tried “sovereignty.” We got poorer.

“But Immigration!”

Brexit was sold on “controlling our borders.”

What actually happened?

Net migration INCREASED to record highs after Brexit. We lost skilled EU workers (nurses, doctors, agricultural workers, hospitality staff). We replaced them with non-EU migration under a points system that… we could have had while IN the EU.

Brexit solved nothing about immigration. It just made our economy worse.