It was Carl von Clausewitz, the early nineteenth century Prussian general, who said:
“War is nothing but the continuation of policy with other means”.
In other words, if a country goes to war, it should do so with a clear political objective, and the war itself should be fought in such a manner as to achieve the goal set by the politicians who authorised it.
It is clear that Vladimir Putin sees war in exactly these terms. He wants the Donbas to come under Russian control. It has coal and iron ore; it has steel mills and heavy industry; it has rich farmland; and it has a strategic, geo-political importance. He also wants to weaken Ukraine economically and politically, and to prevent Ukraine joining NATO, again for geo-political reasons. He tried – not very hard perhaps – to achieve these ends by diplomatic and political means. He did not succeed, so he made the choice to continue policy by other means and invade.
Looked at this way, it is a comparatively simple – even traditional process – which Henry VIII, Napoleon, and Hitler would have all understood.
But even if Donald Trump knows Clausewitz’s dictum, he does not agree with it. For Trump, war is the continuation of business by other means.
Because politics is about the control of people, it inevitably has a moral dimension. You can be a good ruler, or a bad ruler. In most cases, those who are considered bad rulers dispense with the moral dimension and, like Putin, choose to follow policies which are morally questionable. Nonetheless, they are inevitably judged on moral terms – on how their decisions affect the people whose lives they control.
Business does not have that inbuilt moral dimension. Its primary aim is to make money. You can add a moral dimension – like making sure that your business does not pollute the environment or exploit workers in Bangladesh – but a businessman does not have to think about the moral impact of his activities. He can do so, but it is a choice. A politician cannot avoid doing so, even if he ignores it.
Donald Trump is a businessman with no obvious moral compass. He can dismiss the murder of Jamal Khashoggi because, by doing so, he gains access to billions of dollars of Saudi Arabian investment. His tariff wars are not, despite his claims, about fairness. They are a way of raking in extra cash from imports and boosting US industry – another way of making money. His peace plan for Gaza involves moving the Palestinians out and turning the area into a resort. Money first, people (or morality) second. The US commitment to defend Taiwan appears to have weakened – China is a much bigger business partner.
The recent US plan for Ukraine is all of a piece with this approach – and it is noticeable that the US delegation is made up of people who know a great deal more about business than about politics. The idea that Ukraine should give up the Donbas but get access to billions of Russian dollars to rebuild the country is, to Trump, perfectly acceptable. It is a business equation involving no moral or human dimension. If the deal – note how often he talks about ‘a deal’ rather than ‘an agreement’ – goes through, then the US would get 50 per cent of the profits, just like a consultant taking a success fee. Whatever happens in Ukraine, Trump is not going to fall out with Putin because he sees Russia’s vast reserves of natural resources as a potential business opportunity.
Trump’s war-is-a-business attitude may not be unique, but it has certainly never been applied previously on a global scale by the most powerful man in the world. It confuses European and other leaders who have a more traditional and politics-based approach. Ursula von der Leyen, Donald Tusk, Emmanuel Macron, even Keir Starmer will take a stance and stick to it: Russia is wrong, we must back Ukraine. It is a decision with a moral basis.
Trump will not be pinned down. He will criticise Russia on Monday, then share a joke with Putin on Tuesday. He’ll offer to support Ukraine – at a price – on Wednesday, then lay into Zelensky on Thursday. He’s not changing his mind. He’s simply smelling the money.
